The Iranian Nuclear Rollercoaster

Iran’s nuclear status post the 12 day war remains critical, volatile, and uncertain operationally and strategically:

- Does Iran have the political will and the technical capacity to quickly retrieve its HEU stockpile, enrich it further and  cast I into nuclear cores?

- How will the key stakeholders (ranging from the US and Israel to Europe, Russia and even PRC) handle situations in which Iran does not fully cooperate with the IAEA, begins to reconstitute its program, and rebuild its defenses.

- How might the intensifying polarization in its elite and the intensifying succession crisis is Iran affect the long term prospect for a comprehensive nuclear agreement?

The seminar will sketch four possible scenarios going forward and analyze their likely prospects and implications.