Shadow of Catastrophe and the Future of Nuclear Deterrence

In October 2022, the CIA assessed a fifty percent or greater chance that Russia could use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Apparently, the world had come closer to nuclear use than at almost any point since the Cold War, and most people did not know it.

This panel brings together four leading scholars and practitioners to examine what we now know about the Fall 2022 Crisis: how it unfolded, how it was managed, and what it reveals about the limits of nuclear deterrence theory. Drawing on first-hand accounts, newly available evidence, and original research, the discussion will address the key open questions about Russian nuclear thresholds, the role of US and allied signaling, and the influence of China and India. It will also consider what the crisis means for how we think about nuclear weapons today.

The panel is convened around a special issue of Defense & Security Analysis, edited by Project on Managing the Atom Fellow Ulrich Kühn, bringing together contributions from all four panelists.

Moderator:

Ulrich Kühn, Head of Arms Control and Emerging Technologies, Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (IFSH), University of Hamburg

Dr. Ulrich Kühn leads the research area on Arms Control and Emerging Technologies at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (IFSH) at the University of Hamburg, where he also heads the Institute's Knowledge Transfer activities. His research focuses on nuclear weapons policies, conventional deterrence and arms control, NATO and European security, and the security policies of China, Russia, and the United States. He is an Associate of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School and a Non-Resident Scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He completed his doctorate in political science with summa cum laude at the University of Hamburg in 2015.

Panelists:

Colin Kahl, Director, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies; Steven C. Házy Senior Fellow; Professor of Political Science (by courtesy), Stanford University

Colin Kahl is Director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the Steven C. Házy Senior Fellow at Stanford University, where he also serves as Faculty Director of the Program on Geopolitics, Technology, and Governance. From 2021 to 2023, he served as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy at the U.S. Department of Defense, where he oversaw the 2022 National Defense Strategy and led the department's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He previously served as Deputy Assistant to President Obama and National Security Advisor to Vice President Biden (2014–2017), and as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East (2009–2011). He is a recipient of the Department of Defense Distinguished Public Service Medal.

Janice Stein, Founding Director, Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy; Belzberg Professor of Conflict Management, University of Toronto

Janice Gross Stein is the Belzberg Professor of Conflict Management and Founding Director of the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy at the University of Toronto. One of Canada's foremost experts on international politics, she is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada and a member of both the Order of Canada and the Order of Ontario, as well as an Honorary Foreign Member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Her research sits at the intersection of cognitive science, psychology, and international politics, with a focus on decision-making, escalation management, and the intersection of geopolitics and technology. She has authored eight books and over one hundred articles, and received the Molson Prize from the Canada Council for her contributions to public debate.

Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, Chief, Norwegian Intelligence School; Former Deputy Chair, Norwegian Defence Commission

Kristin Ven Bruusgaard is Chief of the Norwegian Intelligence School (Etterretningsskolen) and served as Deputy Chair of Norway's Defence Commission of 2021, which delivered its recommendations on Norwegian defence and security policy to the Støre government in 2023. Her research focuses on strategic studies, nuclear strategy and doctrine, Russia, NATO, and European security. She has published widely in leading journals including Foreign Affairs, Journal of Strategic Studies, and Survival, and received the Amos Perlmutter Award in 2020 for her article on Russian nuclear strategy. She holds a Ph.D. in Defence Studies from King's College London and an M.A. in Security Studies from Georgetown University.