What We Know And What We Don’t Know About The Fall Crisis

In Defense and Security Analysis, Dr. Ulrich Kühn examines a critically underexamined moment from the Russia-Ukraine War, when U.S. intelligence assessed the likelihood of Russian nuclear use at "fifty percent or higher" in fall 2022. Despite how close the world may have come to nuclear escalation, this crisis has yet to receive serious scholarly attention. Kühn works to fill that gap by laying out what is known, what remains contested, and what questions still demand answers.