Does Ahmadinejad Have a Chance?

Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has registered to run in Iran’s presidential elections in May, despite having been advised not to do so by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Payam Mohseni, director of the Iran Project at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center, emails CNN Fareed Zakaria's Global Briefing that Ahmadinejad’s entry is a genuine surprise, and that just registering could be seen as an act of defiance.

“Ahmadinejad’s popularity with the masses should not be discounted, and he would be a genuine rival to President Rouhani if the Guardian Council allows his candidacy,” Mohseni says, adding that the move is significant for two other reasons.
 
“First, it reflects the fragmentation of the conservative umbrella and the continued wildcard status of Ahmadinejad’s faction in that camp.
 
“But his candidacy also reflects the fact that the debate over the succession to the Supreme Leadership is complicating things. Ebrahim Raisi, a conservative candidate who announced he is running in the presidential election, is also rumored to be in line for the position of Supreme Leader. So if Ahmadinejad runs, it would be a blow to Raisi’s chances in the elections and also his candidacy for the Supreme Leadership.”