Governance

The human tragedy continuing to unfold in Gaza and Israel reminds us how important it is to get strategic forecasting right. While in no way excusing Hamas’ culpability for 7 October, we also cannot dismiss the fact that the failure to anticipate and prepare for such an attack has had grave consequences for communities on both sides of this conflict, undermined efforts to bring peace and prosperity to the region, and affected global interests through the expansion of the conflict to the Red Sea and potentially beyond. 

Juliette Kayyem asks: What would happen if a major piece of our infrastructure disappeared in the dark? How do we respond to what could be a lengthy disruption to a lifeline of the region's maritime and transportation networks?

Mariana Budjeryn reflects on the tenth anniversary of her native Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity.

Stephen Walt elaborates on what he is expecting for 2024:  the Israel-Gaza conflict widening, the 75th anniversary of NATO, the possible re-election of Donald Trump, and the election results from other populous democracies, to name a few.

Mariana Budjeryn writes: War never stops at the border, especially on a continent like Europe. The European Union absorbed millions of Ukrainian war refugees and poured billions of euros into Ukraine's defenses and economic survival. The war permanently reshaped Europe: its demographics, political economy, and energy architecture are shifting in ways that will have irreversible long-term consequences. All of this is because in a very real sense Ukraine already is inextricably woven into the fabric of Europe: Ukraine’s pain is Europe’s pain and Ukraine’s gain will inevitably be Europe's gain, too.

In May 2023, the Arctic Initiative hosted a workshop in partnership with the Science and Technology Directorate of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The focus was on the challenges posed by the impacts of rapid climate change in Alaska; how DHS and its components— including the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Cyber and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), and the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG)—are addressing them; and what possibilities may exist for DHS to do more and better.

Alaska is an important region for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), given the
Department’s statutory authority and responsibilities. This reality applies with particular force to the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG), with its jurisdiction over fisheries enforcement, drug interdiction, marine safety, oil spill response, search and rescue, and more. This policy brief provides an overview of the challenges facing the USCG in its domains of operation around Alaska—the Arctic Ocean, the North Pacific Ocean, the Bering Sea, the
Chukchi Sea, and the adjacent communities.

Calder Walton recounts how Russia and China are using their intelligence agencies to reverse the outcome of the Cold War

Emergency-management agencies in the United States and other Western powers have far-reaching capabilities to save lives. But their abilities are not magical. Fundamentally, people need to be partners in their own safety, advises Juliette Kayyem.

This report summarizes a workshop co-hosted by the Arctic Initiative and the Science and Technology Directorate of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), focused on the challenges posed by the impacts of rapid climate change in Alaska.