BCSIA Annual Report, 1981-1982: Seminars

BCSIA: 1981-1982 ANNUAL REPORT
4. Seminars

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Seminars

During the past year the Center continued to sponsor three series of seminars: the Harvard Strategy and Arms Control Seminar (in cooperation with the Center for International Affairs), the CSIA Visitors Seminar, and the CSIA Research Seminar. In addition it participated with other Centers in sponsoring the International Energy and Security Seminar.

Harvard Strategy and Arms Control Seminars

These seminars were conducted before audiences ranging in size from 50 to 200. Following each seminar, a smaller group of changing composition met for dinner and discussion with the speaker.

Speakers and their topics were as follows:

September 22 The Honorable Paul Nitze, U.S. Representative for Intermediate-

Range Nuclear Forces Negotiations "The Strategic Balance in the
1980s"

November 4 Edward Luttwak, Research Professor, Center for Strategic andInternational Studies, Georgetown University "Reforming the
Military: Hopeless Dream or Developing Reality"November 18 The Honorable Harold Brown, Visiting Professor of National
Security Affairs, The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies "Arms Control— Where Do We Go
From Here?"December 9 William Quandt, Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution "SaudiArabia and Gulf Security"

December 16 Karl Kaiser, Director, Forschungsinstitut der Deutsche Gesellschaft F. Auswartige Politik "The Nuclear Weapons Debate in Germany: Determinants and External Implications"

February 17 Albert Carnesale, Academic Dean of the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, and Robert Pfaltzgraff, Professor of International Politics, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy "Reviving the ABM Debate"

March 3 General Bernard Rogers, Supreme Allied Commander, Europe "Alliance Security in the ''80s"

March 17 Owe Nerlich, Ebenhausen, Germany "Coping with Soviet Power: Divergent U.S. and West European Approaches"

April 7 Martin Binkin, Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution"Should We Return to the Draft?"

May 5 Jean-Francois Poncet, Former Foreign Minister of France"European Security Issues"

Visitors Seminar

Visitors Seminars were held throughout the year. Normally participation was limited to
20-30 individuals, thus providing a forum suitable for in-depth discussions with the
visiting experts.

Speakers and their topics were as follows:

September 9 Uriel Rosenthal, Holland "Dutch Politics and the TNF"

September 15 Andre Giraud, Former French Minister of Industry "French Energy Security Politics"

September 16 K. Subrahmanyam, Director, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, India "Why India Needs Nuclear Weapons"

September 23 John Mearsheimer, Research Associate, CFIA "Prospects for Conventional Deterrence in Central Europe"

September 28 Shirley Williams, M.P., United Kingdom "The Formation of the Social Democratic Party in Great Britain"

September 30 Geoffrey Kemp, Senior Staff Member for Near East and South Asian Affairs, National Security Council "AWACS in the Middle East"

October 5 Robin Staffin, Office of Technology Assessment "Fifty Ways to Base MX"

October 14 Amos Perlmutter, Professor of Political Science, The American University "Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy After the Iraqi Raid"

October 19 Ashton Carter, Analyst, International Security and Commerce Program, Congressional Office of Technology Assessment "Ballistic Missile Defense and ICBM Vulnerability"

October 21 William Miller, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy; Formerly Staff Director, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence "Intelligence and Our Constitutional Government"

October 28 Jacques S. Gansler, Vice President, TASC "The Problems the Defense Industry Has in Responding to the Reagan Initiatives"

November 2 Mans Lonnroth, Secretariat of Future Studies, Stockholm "The Politics of a Nuclear-Free Scandinavia"

November 3 Jean-Francois Poncet'' Former Foreign Minister of France"France After Giscard"

November 4 Joseph Coffey, Director, Center for Arms Control and International Security Studies, University of Pittsburgh "TNF and SALT III"

November 9 Randy Forsberg, Director, Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies "Soviet Military Policy: Long Term Trends"

November 10 Hirsh Goodman, Diplomatic Correspondent, The Jerusalem Post "Israel After AWACS"

November 16 Michael Mandelbaum, Associate Professor of Government, Harvard University "Television and the Vietnam War"

November 18 Ronald Steel, Contributing Editor, The New Republic "Walter Lippmann and the National Interest"

December 2 Thomas Halstead, Executive Director, Physicians for Social Responsibility "Nuclear Weapons and the Public Agenda"

December 16 Daniel Bell, Henry Ford II Professor of Social Science, Harvard University "The Frameworks of the Future"

February 8 Johan J. Hoist, Director, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs "Nordic Security and Nuclear Weapons in Europe"

February 9 Shepard Stone, Director, Aspen Institute, Berlin "The German Question"

February 10 Vitali Zhurkin, Deputy Director, Institute of U.S. and Canada Studies, USSR "U.S.-Soviet Relations"

February 24 Thane Gustafson, Rand Corporation "Energy and the Soviet Union"

February 25 Ulrich Steger, SPD Member of the Bundestag, Committee on Research and Technology "German-U.S. Relations"

March 3 Thomas Schelling, Lucius N. Littauer Professor of Political Economy, Harvard University "What''s the Matter with Arms Control?"

March 10 Thomas Simons, Director, Office of Soviet Union Affairs, Bureau of European Affairs, Department of State "U.S.-Soviet Relations Under Polish Martial Law"

March 17 Stevan Dedijer, Department of Business Administration, University of Lund, Sweden "Social Intelligence— History, Evolution, Research Questions, Theory"

April 14 David Holloway, Peace Studies Program, Cornell University "Is the Soviet Union Moving Towards a New Military Doctrine?"

April 19 Thorwald Stoltenberg, Former Defense Minister of Norway "NATO and the Northern Flank"

April 20 K. Subrahmanyan, Director, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, India "American''s Mistakes in the Third World"April 26 Martin Sherwin, Visiting Scholar, Charles Warren Center for Studies in American History, Harvard University "Robert Oppenheimer and the Legacy of Hiroshima"April 28 Jean Christophe S. Obert, Swedish Diplomat, served in Phnom-Penh, Saigon, Bangkok, Jakarta "The Cambodia Question"

April 29 Clarence Robinson, Senior Writer, Aviation Week and Space Technology "International Security Dimensions of Space"

May 19 J. Kenneth Galbraith, Paul M. Warburg Professor of Economics Emeritus "The Perils of Reaganomics"

Research Seminars

The Research Seminar provided the opportunity for members of the Center''s research
staff to report on their work in progress and to obtain their colleagues'' reactions. To
facilitate the free flow of ideas, these seminars were informal and off-the-record, and
attendance was limited to members of the staff, members of the Advisory Committee and
of the Faculty of the Kennedy School of Government, and other individuals invited by
the speaker.

Speakers and their topics were as follows:

October 26 Barry Posen, Research Fellow, CFIA "Conventional Force

Operations and Nuclear Escalation"

November 23 Stephen Walt, Graduate Student Associate, CSIA"Superpowers and Allies in the Middle East"

November 30 William Colglazier, Research Fellow, CSIA "The Politics of Nuclear Waste"
December 7 Gary Samore, Research Fellow, CFIA "The Saudi RoyalFamily"

December 9 Nil Ozergene, Research Fellow, CSIA"Is the U.S. Subsidizing Soviet High Technology?"
December 14 Jeffrey Boutwell, Graduate Student Associate, CSIA
"Nuclear Weapons Issues: The Politics of Protest in West
Germany"

February 3 Fen Hampson, Graduate Student Associate, CSIA "FraughtWith Risk: The Political Economy of Canadian and
Mexican Oil Policies"

February 22 Morris McCain, Research Fellow, CSIA "Soviet Incentivesto Engage in Arms Control"

March 1 Charles Glaser, Graduate Student Associate, CSIA "Alternatives to Offense Dominance"

March 8 Laurie Mylroie, Graduate Student Associate, CFIA "Saudi-Israeli Conflict"

March 22 Mahnaz Ispahani, Graduate Student Associate, CSIA "Oldand New: The Politics of Routes"

April 5 William Durch, Research Fellow, Project Administrator,CSIA "Point Defense and the ABM Treaty"

April 12 Dean Wilkening, Research Fellow, CSIA"Laser and Particle Beam Weapons"May 3 Lennart Johansson, Visiting Scholar, CSIAapolitical Risk Assessment: Outline of a Research
Project"May 5 Hisahiko Okazaki, Visiting Fellow, CSIA "Thoughts on theFar Eastern Balance and Japanese Strategy"

May 10 Reinhardt Rummel, Adjunct Research Fellow'' CSIA"European-American Differences in the Middle East"May 17 Mike Mochizuki, Research Fellow, CSIA "Modes of Defense Cooperation between Japan and the U.S."May 24 Dorothy S. Zinberg, Director of Seminars and SpecialProjects, CSIA; Lecturer, Kennedy School of Government
"Trip Report: NATO and the Nuclear Weapons Freeze"International Energy and Security Seminars

The Center continued for a second year its cosponsorship of this seminar series designed to bring in outside speakers on such topics as prospects for disruptions of energy supplies, the security of the world oil market, and the political stability of the Middle East.Speakers and their topics were as follows:

September 15 Andre Giraud, French Minister of Industry "French EnergySecurity Policies"
October 5 James Sweeney, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum "EnergySecurity Issues in the ''80s: Is There Still a Problem?"
October 19 Robert Dohner, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy"How Painful the Adjustment? Energy and the American
Economy"
October 30 Kitty Schirmer, Exxon Corporation "Oil Shortages and OilGluts"
November 2 Danny Boggs, Senior Energy Coordinator, White HouseDomestic Policy Staff "Reagan Administration Energy
Policy"
November 16 Herbert Goodman, President, Gulf Trading andTransportation Company "The World Oil Market" Georges
Brondel, Commission of Energy, European Community
"Energy and Security: The View from Europe"
February 9 Youssef Ibrahim, Wall Street Journal, Senior EnergyCorrespondent "Changing World Oil Markets"
February 16 Umberto Colombo, Chairman, ENI, Italy "The Security of Energy Supply in Europe"
February 25 Thane Gustafson, Rand Corporation "Soviet EnergyDecision-Making"
March 23 Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani, Harvard Energy Security

Program. "Tilting Toward the Persian Gulf: The Changing Structure of World Oil Production"
April 30 James Bretherton, International Energy, OECD "Prospectsfor International Energy Cooperation"
May 6 Lee Schipper, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Universityof California "The Good News and the Bad: Conversation
in a Dozen Industrial Countries— and What Next?"

May 12 Jeremy Russell, Royal Dutch Shell/Harvard Energy
Security Program "The New Geopolitics of International Trade in Natural Gas"

May 14 Paul Frankel and Ted White, Petroleum Economists,London "The International Petroleum Industry in the 1980s"

May 19 Alberto Quiro, President of Maraven Petroleum, Venezuela"Venezuela and the World Oil Market"

May 28 Ulrich Engelmann, Director, German Ministry ofEconomics "Energy Security: The View from Bonn

Visitors

Individuals who visited CSIA during 1981-82 and engaged in informal discussions with CSIA
Research Staff included:

Robert Amory, Resource Identification Services, Inc., Watertown, Mass.

Desmond Ball, Center for Strategic Studies, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.

James Barry, Soviet Division Chief, CIA.

Barry Blechman, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.

Joseph F. Campbell, Jr., National Security Division, Office of Management and Budget,
Washington, D.C.

Walter Cross, National Defense University, Washington, D.C.

George M. Cull, Major, USAF, Visiting Scholar, Center for International Studies, MIT, under
USAF Research Associate Program.

Stephen Flanagan, Staff, Senate Intelligence Committee.

Carol Franco, Ballinger Publishing Company, Cambridge, Mass.

Se Jin Kim, Korean Consul General, New York, N.Y.

Edward Lamb, Toledo, Ohio.

Tor Larsson, Senior Research Officer, National Defense Research Institute, Sweden.

Malcolm Maclure, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Harvard University.
Karen Mulhauser, Washington, D.C.

Robert Nurick, Assistant Director, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, London,
England.

Iwao Ogawa, Professor of Physics and Founding Participant in Pug-Wash Movement, Rikkyo
University, Tokyo.

Elizabeth Pond, Christian Science Monitor, Bonn, West Germany.

Gideon Raphael, former Director of Ministry of Foreign Affairs and former Ambassador of
Israel to the United Nations and to the Court of St. James''s.

Condi Rice, Assistant Director, Arms Control and Disarmament Program, Stanford University.

Michael Rice, Aspen Institute, New York, with participants in French-American Foundation''s
U.S. TV News Seminar.

Cynthia Roberts, Pre-Doctoral Fellow, Stanford University.

Gene Rochlin, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, Calif.

Jae-Won Rob, Chancellor, the Institute of Foreign Affairs, The Republic of Korea.

Christian Schmidt, Universite de Paris-Dauphine, Paris, France.

Jane Sharp, Peace Studies Program, Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y.

Adele Simmons, President, Hampshire College.

Mr. Sparring, Director, Swedish Institute of International Affairs.

James Gustave Speth, Visiting Professor, Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, D.C.

Philip Stewart, Dartmouth Conference Coordinator, Columbus, Ohio.

Paulus J. Teunissen, University of Groningen and Member, Defense Advisory Council and
Advisory Committee of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Netherlands.

Karsten Voight, Member of the Bundestag of the Federal Republic of Germany.

Baron Friedrich von Dungern, Consul General, German Consulate, Boston, Mass.

Llewellyn C. Werner, Studio City, Calif.

Solly Zuckerman, Kings Lynn, United Kingdom

Table of Contents:

OverviewOrganization and Personnel

Research and PublicationsSeminars Other Center Activities Related Professional Activities Former Members of the Research Staff