BCSIA Annual Report, 1979-1980: Other Program Activities

BCSIA: 1979-1980 ANNUAL REPORT
5. Other Program Activities

OTHER PROGRAM ACTIVITIES

"Technology/ War, and Peace"
In the fall semester forty-seven students were enrolled in the course which was offered by the
Center for the fifth consecutive year and cosponsored by the Office of General Education and the
Kennedy School of Government. It was taught by Professors Carnesale and Doty, and one CSIA
research fellow and one CSIA qraduat student acted as teaching fellows. The subjects of the
lectures were as follows.

1. Introduction
2. Development of the A-Bomb
3. The A-Bomb and WWII
4. Thermonuclear Weapons
5. The Baruch Plan and the Test Ban
6. Political-Military Implications of Nuclear Weal
7. Arms Control Negotiations and Results
8. Strategic Forces
9. Strategic Doctrine
10. Conventional Arms Transfer
11. Limited War
12. SALT I
13. SALT II: Context and Agreements
14. SALT II: Issues
15. Medium Nuclear Powers
16. HOLIDAY
17. MIDTERM
18. Role of Systems Analysis
19. OPEN
20. Nuclear Energy and Nuclear Weapons
21. Nuclear Proliferation
22. European Security
23. Future of Arms Control
24. New Dimensions of National Security
25. OPEN

Working Groups Three working groups, in which members of the'' CSIA research staff and other interested individuals in the Cambridge community engaged in collaborative work on topics of mutual interest, were active this year.

The Defense and Development Working Group, led by Michael Nacht, examined patterns of regime change in developing countries and the implications of these patterns for American policy. Part of the working group conducted a macro-statistical study to identify political, social, economic, and military indices that have been prevalent prior to regime changes in the less developed countries from 1960 through 1979. Other members of the group engaged in the development of case studies of individual regime changes and the role of American policy prior to, during and immediately after these changes. The ultimate objective of the group was to produce an analytical framework for assessing: (1) the likelihood of regime changes in specific developing countries; and (2) appropriate American policies prior to these regime changes.

The Energy and Security Working Group, chaired by David Deese, held fifteen seminars during the year with the goal to examine a wide range of issues dealing with energy security: the physical disruption of oil supplies; the economic and political effects of rapid oil price increases; and the foreign policy costs of energy vulnerability. Issues considered affect both major free world consumers and producers: military threats to Persian Gulf oil supplies, the petroleum-Palestinian linkage, decision-making in OPEC, and the factors affecting Saudi Arabia''s production. With respect to the U.S. domestic situation, the Group reviewed the current status of energy security planning, lessons from Iran, and the state of readiness including military postures to cope with short-term supply interruptions. International issues examined included Japan''s energy security problem, the barriers to a common European energy security policy, and economic and political stability problems faced by less developed countries. The culmination of the Group''s efforts is a book, to be published in December 1980, which will provide decision-makers and the public with a clear definition of energy security and carefully considered policy alternatives.

The Nuclear Forces and Doctrine Working Group, led by Albert Carnesale, focused this year on the. evolution of U.S. strategic doctrine, with particular emphasis on the counterforce dimensions. Among the subjects. examined by participants were: Strategic Doctrine: Whence it Came'' Where it Went; The Use and Misuse of Declaratory Policy; Nuclear War Operations and Counterforce; and Theories of War and Strategic Doctrine.

Table of Contents:

OverviewOrganization and Personnel

Research and PublicationsSeminars Other Program Activities Related Professional Activities Former Members of the Research Staff