BCSIA Annual Report, 1979-1980: Research and Publications

BCSIA: 1979-1980 ANNUAL REPORT
3. Research and Publications

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RESEARCH AND PUBLICATIONS

The main focus of the Center continued to be research on arms control and disarmament and on the role they can play in reducing the dependence on force in world politics. The means by which the spread of nuclear weapons can be constrained and reduced receives particular emphasis. Related areas of research include the benefits and risks of the growing use of nuclear power'' the international competition for energy resources and conflict possibilities stemming from this competition, and the impact of national science policies on international efforts to deal with global problems.

Research Interests

Albert Carnesale, Senior Faculty Research Associate, CSIA, and Professor of Public Policy. Nuclear arms control, nuclear energy policy, and the relationships between them. Emphasis is on the role of arms control in the shaping of nuclear forces and doctrines for their use and on technical and institutional measures for minimizing the risks of proliferation of nuclear weapons.

E. William Colglazier, Research Fellow, CSIA, and Associate Director, Aspen Program in Science, Technology, and Humanism. Nuclear power and nonproliferation policies, including waste disposal and advanced fuel cycles; role of science and technology in development of the Third World; alternative energy sources and strategies; environmental policies and risk assessment for new technologies.

Stephen R. David, Graduate Student in Government. Motivations for states to change their orientation from pro-Soviet to pro-American (and vice-versa) with particular emphasis on the role of conflict and arms transfers in the change. The security of Third World states and its relationship to super-power military assistance programs.

David A. Deese, Research Fellow, CSIA. International political economy'' especially the interaction between social, economic, and political change caused by energy programs and national and international security; nuclear power and nonproliferation policies; the response of international institutions to problems of economic development, science and technology, and international security.

Paul Doty, Director, CSIA, and Mallinckrodt Professor of Biochemistry. The ratification of SALT II; planning and strategy for SALT III, particularly arms control of Eurostrategic nuclear weapons in European theater; international scientific cooperation; nuclear power policies.

Richard Garwin, Professor of Public Policy and member of CSIA. Implications of new technology for defense policy and arms control. Emphasis is on strategic force planning and strategic arms limitations and on nonproliferation of nuclear weapons.

Derek Leebaert, Research Fellow, CSIA, and Managing Editor of the journal, International Security, published by CSIA. NATO politics and the European balance; modern military history; the development and formulation of conventional military doctrine in the 20th century.

Peter Malone, Graduate Student, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Potential American responses to development of third-generation strategic nuclear forces by Britain and/or France in light of US arms control, strategic, multilateral, and bilateral political interests; European security and arms control issues generally.

Michael Mandelbaum, Research Fellow, CSIA, and Associate Professor of Government. Writing a thematic, episodic history of security policy in the twentieth century, from World War I through the oil crisis.

Onkar S. Marwah, Adjunct Research Fellow, CSIA, and Assistant Director, The Programme for Strategic and International Security Studies, Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva, Switzerland. Nuclear proliferation, with emphasis on the policies and programs of six developing nations expected to seek a nuclear weapons capability in the coming decade: Argentina, Brazil, Iran, Pakistan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Stephen M. Meyer, Adjunct Research Fellow, CSIA; Lecturer in Political Science, M.I T.; and Research Associate at the Center for International Studies, M.I.T. Patterns and trends in Soviet weapons systems design, production and deployments with particular emphasis on forecasting technologies and capabilities in the 1980s. Modelling and analysis of international security issues using statistical and probabilistic methodologies.

Linda Miller, Adjunct Research Fellow, CSIA, and Professor of Political Science, Wellesley College. Politics of energy: domestic and international aspects, emphasizing relationships among advanced industrial countries, especially the U.S., Western Europe, and Japan. American/ European political'' economic, and military relations. U.S. policy in the Middle East, stressing oil politics and resource diplomacy.

Steven Miller, Research Assistant, CSIA, and Graduate Student, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Strategic arms policy and strategic arms control; conventional arms transfers; Soviet-American naval issues; and European security, with an emphasis on the Northern Flank.

Michael Nacht, Assistant Director, CSIA, and Associate Professor of Public Policy. Soviet-American relations, emphasizing force postures and arms control; American foreign policy and regional security problems in Europe, East Asia and the Middle East; the relationship between economic development and defense policy in selected developing countries.

Joseph Nye, Professor of Government, Professor of Public Policy, and member of CSIA. United States foreign policy, with emphasis on international aspects of energy policy, nuclear arms control, and technology transfer.

Athanassios G. Platias, Ford Foundation Southern European Fellow, special graduate student, John F. Kennedy School of Government. American foreign policy during Kissinger'' term of offices with particular emphasis on Southern Europe; regional security problems in Southern Europe; Greek-Turkish conflict; aspects of European integration.

Barry R. Posen, Graduate Student, University of California at Berkeley. Evolution of U.S. strategic doctrine: the extent to which important war-fighting scenarios are reflected in U.S. strategic nuclear forces, war plans, and thinking.

Reinhard Rainer, Research Fellow, CSIA (on leave from IAEA, Vienna, Austria). Nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, evolution of a nonproliferation regime, international institutional arrangements, and possible roles of the IAEA.

Randy J. Rydell, Research Fellow, CSIA. American research and development policy for the breeder reactor (bureaucratic politics, public administration, science policy) and the relationships between civilian nuclear power and the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

Jane M.O. Sharp, Research Fellow, CSIA. MBFR and European arms control after SALT II, focusing on restraints in theater nuclear weapons.

Robin Staffin, Research Fellow, CSIA. Arms control, strategic balance and international security issues; the impact of technical and scientific factors on problems of international relations; nuclear weapons and nuclear energy proliferation in the Third World.

Barry H. Steiner, Research Fellow, CSIA, and Associate Professor of Political Science, California State University, Long Beach. The intensification of Soviet-American strategic (nuclear) arms competition, 1945-60, and the manner in which policy makers coped with intensified rivalry; comparative study of competitions in different time periods.

Alvin H. Streeter, Graduate Student, M.I.T. An evaluation of U.S. nuclear fuel policy and international trends towards proliferation. Foreign policy forecasting using elementary process models. Also, U.S.-South African relations.

Stephen Van Evera, Graduate Student, University of California at Berkeley. Military policy and the causes of war. The possibility and intensity of war as affected by military doctrine, force posture, and military hardware.

Agatha Wong, Research Fellow, CSIA. Arms control and nuclear proliferation. Chinese nuclear strategy.

Dorothy Zinberg, Lecturer at KSG, and Seminars and Special Projects Director, CSIA. Cross-national study of decision making in nuclear waste management issues. The role of the scientific community in nuclear energy controversy. Public understanding of science; social responsibility of scientists. Science and engineering manpower in LDCs; changing trends in research-related travel of scientists between the United States and developed countries.

Publications

Carnesale, Albert. "International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation (INFCE)." In International Energy Strategies: Proceedings of the 1979 IAEE-RFF Conference on International Energy Issues, edited by Joy Dunkerley. Cambridge, MA: Oelgeschlader, Gunn & Hain. (Forthcoming)

______. "SALT Verification." In Intelligence, Deception and Surprise (Fletcher School Conference 1979) edited by Geoffrey Kemp, Robert Pfaltzgraff, and Uri Ra''anan. New York: Macmillan. (Forthcoming)

Colglazier, E. William. "The Aspen Conference on Radioactive Waste." Environmental Consensus, Winter 1980.

______ and Paul Doty. "U.S. Debates a New Agency." Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May 1980.

______, ed. Governance and Radioactive Waste. New York: Pergamon Press. (Forthcoming)

______, Al Alm, and Barbara Kates-Garnick. "Energy Policy Responses to Supply Interruptions." In Energy Security, edited by David A. Deese and Joseph S. Nye.Cambridge, MA: Ballinger. (Forthcoming)

David, Steven R. "Realignment in the Horn: The Soviet Advantage." International Security, Fall 1979.

Deese, David A. "Energy: Economics, Politics and Security." International Security, Winter 1979-80.

______, et al. Future U.S.-Japanese Nuclear Energy Relations. New York: The Rockefeller Foundation, 1979.

______ and Joseph S. Nye, eds. Energy and Security. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1980.

______. "Foreign Policy Implications of Spent Fuel and Radioactive Waste Management." In Governance and Radioactive Waste, edited by E. William Colglazier. New York: Pergamon Press. (Forthcoming)

Doty, Paul and E. William Colglazier. "U.S. Debates a New Agency." Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May 1980.

______. "Einstein and International Security." To be published with Einstein and Humanism Selected Papers from the Jerusalem Einstein Centennial Symposium. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. (Forthcoming)

Garwin, Richard L. "The Role and the Technology of HighPower Transmission Lines" and "Perspectives on Energ`Resources and Society." In Workshop Proceedings: Public Policy Aspects of'' Hiqh-Capacity Electric Power Transmission. Palo Alto, CA: EPRI, 1979.

______, et al. Energy: The Next Twenty Years. (Sponsored by the Ford Foundation), Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1979.

______, et al. Energy: The Next Twenty Years: An Overview. (Sponsored by the Ford Foundation), Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1979.

______, "Presidential Science Advising." Technology in Society, 1980.

______, "Launch Under Attack to Redress Minuteman Vulnerability?" International Security, Winter 1979-80.

______, "Bureaucratic and Other Problems in Planning and Managing Military R&D." In The Genesis of New Weapons: Decision Making for: Military R&D. (Forthcoming)

______, "Trends in the Technological Development of Nuclear Weapons Systems." To be published in a book sponsored by the United Nations Group of Experts on a Comprehensive Study of Nuclear Weapons. New York: United Nations. (Forthcoming)

______ and Robin Staffin. "Status of Nuclear Weapons Systems." To be published in a book sponsored by the United Nations Group of Experts on a Comprehensive Study of Nuclear Weapons. New York: United Nations. (Forthcoming)

Leebaert, Derek, ed. Soviet Military Thinking. Winchester, MA: Allen & Unwin. (Forthcoming)

Malone, Peter. "American Defense Policy." Strategic Survey (In press)

______, Political Aftermath of SALT in Europe. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporatlon. (Forthcoming)

Mandelbaum, Michael. The Nuclear Question: The United States and Nuclear Weapons, 1946-76. New York: Cambridge University PRESS, 1979.

______, "The Political Lessons of Two World War II Novels." Political Science Quarterly, Fall 1980. (In press)

______, The Nuclear Revolution: International Politics Before and After Hiroshima. (Forthcoming)

Meyer, Stephen M. "Verification and the ICBM Shell Game." International Security, Winter 1979-80.

______, "Politics Among Data." Naval War College Review, March-April 1980.

Miller, Linda B. "A Foreign Policy for America.'''' International Security, Winter 1979-1980.

______, "Instability in Foreign Policy." Daedalus. (In press)

______, and David A. Deese. "Energy Security for Western Europe." In Energy Security, edited by David A. Deese and Joseph S. Nye. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger. (Forthcoming)

______, "The United Nations and the Management of International Security." In The United Nations at ThirtyFive, edited by Tobi Gati. (Forthcoming)

Miller, Steven E. "Review of Dimensions of Detente." Political Science Quarterly, Fall 1979.

______, and Geoffrey Kemp. "The Arms Transfer Phenomenon." In Arms Transfers and American Foreign Policy, edited by Andrew Pierre. New York: New York University Press, 1979.

______, "Assessing the Soviet Navy." Naval War College Review, September-October 1979.

______, "31 Years of American Glory: An Illusion." The New York Times, January 1, 1980.

______, "Review of Shattered Peace." The Fletcher Forum. Winter 1980.

______, "The Illusion of American Omnipotence." USA Today, May 1980.

Nacht, Michael. "Arms, Arms Control and Conflict." In The Future of Conflict, edited by John J. McIntyre. Washington, DC: National Defense University, 1979.

______, "On Memories, Interests and Foreign Policy: The Case of Vietnam." In National Security and International Stability, edited by Bernard Brodie, Michael S. Intrillgator, and Roman Kolkowicz. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1980.

______, "Toward an American Conception of Regional Security." Daedalus. (In press)

______, "Anxiety and Ambivalence in the Japanese-American Security Relationship." In Emerging Issues in Asian Security, edited by Michael Blaker and Tadashi Yamamoto. New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1980.

______, "The Incompetent Meet the Irresponsible: Centrifugal Forces in the Atlantic Alliance." Politique Etrangere. Summer 1980. (In press)

______, "Nuclear Proliferation and American Security." International Organization, Winter 1980-81. (In press)

Nye, Joseph S. "We Tried Harder and Did More " Foreign Policy. Fall 1979

______, "Japan and Energy Security" and "Energy as a Security Problem." In Energy Security, edited by David A. Deese and Joseph S. Nye. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger. (Forthcoming)

Platias, Athanassios G. "The Myth of Nuclear Superiority in Our Era and Arms Control: The Case of SALT II." Political Criterion, January 1980. (In Greek)

______, "Gray Area Weapons System Modernization." To Vima (The Tribune). (In press)(In Greek)

______, "Civil Defense." To be published in a book sponsored by the United Nations Group of Experts on a Comprehensive Study of Nuclear Weapons. New York: United Nations. (Forthcoming)

______, "The Dispute Between Greece and Turkey Over the Aegean Sea Continental Shelf." (In press)

Posen, Barry R. and Stephen Van Evera. "Raising Questions About Defense Spending." The Wall Street Journal, February 1, 1980.

Rainer, Reinhard. "Nonproliferation 1980: INFCE and NPT." Direito Nuclear (Brazilian Nuclear Law Journal). (In press)

Rydell, Randy. Decisionmaking on the Breeder Reactor in Britain and the United States. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press. (Forthcoming)

______, "The Problem of Closure in Three Nuclear Power Controversies." Proceedings of the Hastings Center Conference on Closure. (Forthcoming)

Sharp, Jane M. O. "Arms Control and the Alliance." In The Atlantic Alliance— The First Thirty Years, edited by Curt Gasteyger. Geneva: Graduate Institute of International Studies, 1980.

Staffin, Robin. "The Amazing NAVSTAR''s Impact on Strategy." The Christian Science Monitor, May 14, 1980.

______, and Richard Garwin. "Status of Nuclear Weapons Systems." To be published in a book sponsored by the United Nations Group of Experts on a Comprehensive Study of Nuclear Weapons. New York: United Nations. (Forthcoming)

Van Evera, Stephen and Barry Posen. "Raising Questions About Defense Spending." The Wall Street Journal, February 1, 1980.

Wong-Fraser, Agatha S. Y. The Sino-Soviet Conflict in the Persian Gulf: A Case Study. Washington, DC: University Press of America. (Forthcoming)

______, Selectivity and Symmetry in U.S. Defense Policy: A Grand Design or a Major Mistake? Washington, DC: University Press of America. (Forthcoming)

______, The Political Utility of Nuclear Weapons: Expectations and Experience. Washington, DC: University Press of America. (Forthcoming)

______, Chinese Attitudes Towards Arms Control and Nuclear Disarmament. London: Macmillan. (Forthcoming)

______, China''s Future Nuclear Deterrent." Current History. (In press)

Zinberg, Dorothy S. "Nuclear Wastes and Future Generations— Uncertainty Compounded." To be published in the Proceedings of the Conference on Science, Technology and Human Values, Spring Hill Center, Wyzata, Minnesota, April 1980.

______, and David A. Deese. "Radioactive Waste Management: A Comparative Study of National Decision-Making Processes." Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy, January 1980.

______, "Social Acceptability of Energy Policy: The Case of Nuclear Power and the Public." To be published in the Proceedings of the International Scientific Forum on Energy for Developed and Developing Countries, Nice, France, October 1979.

______, "America and Europe— The New Balance in Science." Washington, DC: The National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences, Current Issues and Studies Series. (Forthcoming)

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

International Security, the quarterly journal published by the Center for Science and International Affairs in conjunction with the M.I.T. Press, completed its fourth year of publication in the Spring of 1980 with approximately four thousand subscribers. The journal''s articles continue to reflect the Center''s broad definition of international security as embracing all of those factors which have a direct bearing on the structure of the nation-state system and the sovereignty of its members'' with particular emphasis on the use, threat, and control of force. It has established a reputation for objective analysis presented by scholars, military and government officials, journalists, business leaders, and members of the concerned public. During the fourth year, articles'' commentaries, and reviews addressed a wide range of topics. Following is an index of the titles and authors appearing in International Security during the past year.

VOLUME 4, NUMBER 3 Winter 1979/80

A Military Commander Surveys the Nuclear Arms Race Louis Mountbatten

ARCS OF INSTABILITY?

The Superpowers and the Northern Tier Zalmay Khalilzad

Soviet Ambitions in South Asia A.G. Noorani

China''s Balkan Strategy David A. Andelman

Ten Years of British Troops in Northern Ireland Brian Garrett

European Security and the German Problem Christoph Bertram

Launch Under Attack to Redress Minuteman Vulnerability Richard L. Garwin

ENERGY SECURITY

Energy: Economics, Politics, and Security David A. Deese

World Oil Production and Security of Supplies Ray Dafter

A Review Essay: A Foreign Policy for America? Linda B. Miller

Research Note David Holloway

VOLUME 4 NUMBER 4 Spring 1980

To What Ends Military Power? Robert J. Art

RETHINKING INTELLIGENCE

Estimates and Fortune Telling in Intelligence Work Shlomo Gazit

Surprise and Change in International Politics Michael I. Handel

Are the Soviets Really Outspending the U.S. on Defense? Franklyn D. Holzman

Deterrence and the Arms Race: The Impotence of Power Jacek Kugler and
A.F.K. Organski,
with Daniel Fox

Economics, Energy, and Security in Alliance Perspective Robert J. Lieber

NSC 68 and the Soviet Threat Reconsidered John Lewis Gaddis
Paul Nitze

COMMENTARIES

The Lessons of Zimbabwe-Rhodesia Lord Saint Brides

The Changed Character of British Foreign and Security Policy Gillian Peele

Vietnam: Was the System the Solution? A Review Essay David E. Kaiser

VOLUME 5 NUMBER 1 Summer 1980

AFTER AFGHANISTAN

The End of Detente? Dimitri K. Simes

Pakistani Geopolitics: The Diplomatic Perspective Sultan M. Khan

Reassessing the Strategic Balance Richard Burt

Shifting Sands of Peace in the Middle East Mohamed Sid-Ahmed

The Tragicomedy of Arms Trade Control Richard K. Betts

Organizing for National Security Philip A. Odeen

Security to the South: U.S. Interests in Latin America Margaret Daly Hayes

REVIEW ESSAYS

A Clandestine Clan Kenneth L. Adelman

The Diplomacy of SALT Andrew J. Pierre

The Best of All Possible Nuclear Worlds McGeorge Bundy

COMMENTARY

Can A Third World War Be Prevented? Carl-Friedrich von
Weiszacker

VOLUME 5, NUMBER 2 Fall 1980

The Bomb, Dread, and Eternity Michael Mandelbaum

CONFLICT AND COOPERATION IN EAST ASIA

Trilateralism: The Japanese Perspective Hisashi Owada

China, Soviet Strategy, and American Policy Robert L. Pfaltzgraff

China Rethinks the Soviet Model Marshall Goldman

Soviet Policy and Progress in East Asia Donald Zagoria

Security Considerations in the Persian Gulf Hermann F. Eilts

The Soviet Style of Invasion: From Prague to Kabul Jiri Valenta

Global Threats and Trans-Atlantic Allies Gregory Traverton

COMMENTARY

Economic Sanctions as a Foreign Policy Tool Otto Wolff Von
Amerongen

Research Report: African Militaries as Foreign Policy Actors Henry Bienen

Correspondence Joseph Nye
Robert J. Art

Table of Contents:

OverviewOrganization and Personnel

Research and PublicationsSeminars Other Program Activities Related Professional Activities Former Members of the Research Staff