BCSIA Annual Report, 1977-1978: Other Program Activities

BCSIA: ANNUAL REPORT 1977-1978
Section 5: Other Program Activities

"Technology, War and Peace"

In the fall semester more than ninety students were enrolled in the course sponsored by the Program, "Technology, War and Peace." (Social Sciences 159/Public Policy 286). The course, which was taught by Professor Doty and Drs. Carnesale and Nacht for the third consecutive year, was co-sponsored by the Office of General Education and by the Kennedy School of Government. Five PSIA graduate students acted as teaching fellows. The subjects of the lectures were as follows:

Introduction
1. Contemporary Issues
2. Historical Perspective

The Truman Years (1944-1952)
3. Development of the Atomic Bomb
4. The Atomic Bomb and World War II
5. The Cold War and Attempts to Control the Bomb
6. Political-Military Implications of Nuclear Weapons

The Eisenhower Years (1953-1960)
7. Developments in Arms and Arms Control 8. Strategic Weapons and Strategic Doctrine

The Kennedy-Johnson Years (1961-1968)
9. Limited War in Theory and Practice
10. Limited Nuclear Options
11. McNamara and the Whiz Kids
12. First Steps in Arms Control
13. Midterm Exam

The Nixon-Ford Years (1969-1976)
14. Technology and Conventional War
15. Alliance Politics and European Security
16. SALT: The Context
17. SALT: The Agreements

The Coming Octade (1977-1984)
18. Nuclear Energy
19. Open
20. Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
21. Issues in Strategic Arms Control
22. Issues in Defense Budgeting and Conventional Arms Control
23. New Dimensions of National Security
24. The Future of Arms Control

Workshops and Conferences

On December 19, the Program co-sponsored with the Department of Energy and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology a "Workshop on Institutional Aspects of Proliferation Resistance." There were 28 participants from universities, industry, government, and research organizations. The topics were "Attributes, Games, Decisions, and Proliferation Resistance"; "Tailoring Institutional Constraints as Complements to Technological Barriers to Proliferation"; and "Nonproliferation and International Fuel Cycle Facilities: Some Cautionary Notes?"

The Program participated jointly with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in planning and conducting two conferences on nuclear energy policy with foreign countries. The first— an "American-German Meeting on Nuclear Energy Policy"--was held at Airlie House on January 12-15, 1978. Seventeen West German and 26 American participants drawn from private and public nuclear research facilities, government, industry, and universities discussed the following topics: "Uranium Market and Assurance of Fuel Supply"; "Internationalization of the Fuel Cycle"; and "The International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation."

The second conference, an "American-Japanese Meeting on Nuclear Energy Policy," took place in Tokyo on January 24-26, 1978. Fifteen American and 29 Japanese participants discussed the following topics: "Energy Resources and the Role of Nuclear Energy: Reprocessing, Breeders, and Waste Management"; "International Arrangements for the Nuclear Fuel Cycle"; and "Prospects for U.S.-Japan Cooperation."

On April 28, 1978, a conference was held on "Economic Consequences of Arms Control Agreements." Funding was provided by the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA). Twenty-six participants from universities, government and research organizations attended. Papers on four subjects were presented and discussed: "SALT II," "Beyond SALT II," "MBFR," and "The Indian Ocean."

The Program maintained its active role in the Aspen Arms Control Consortium, which is comprised of four university programs in arms control (Harvard, M.I.T., Cornell, Stanford) and the Aspen Institute for Humanistic Studies. The Consortium has three objectives: to clarify and make public the technical and political developments that affect arms control and their implications; to construct a conscious, continuous community of experts on arms control; and to widen this consultation to include those from outside the United States. Activities in which PSIA was centrally involved this year included a one-week summer workshop on "A Comprehensive U.S. Arms Control Strategy" and a three-day meeting in Berlin on "Implications of SALT for European Security."

Working Groups

Five working groups, in which members of the PSIA research staff and other interested individuals in the Cambridge community engaged in collaborative work on topics of mutual interest, were active this year.

The Domestic Politics and Security Policy Working Group served as a forum for papers destined for publication. It was chaired by Michael Mandelbaum. The papers presented included: Jonathan Pollack: "Chinese Defense Policy After Mao," Michael Mandelbaum: "The Nuclear Arms Race and Tariff Competitions" (a book chapter), Derek Leebaert: "Weapons Standardization and NATO" (published in International Security, Winter 1978), Thane Gustafson: "Power in the Soviet Political System" (a book chapter), Stephen Flanagan:"Congress and SALT II" (to be published in ''2he Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November, 1978), Paul Walker and Robert Metzger: "Arms Control Impact Statements," Giinter Brauch: "Defense Industry Locations and American Presidential Elections," and Michael Mandelbaum: "In Defense of SALT" (to be published in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, December, 1978).

The Nuclear Nonproliferation Working Group, led by Albert Carnesale and Frederick Williams, focused its efforts on issues associated with international cooperation in the storage of spent nuclear fuel. This 15-member group was supported in part by a $49,013 research contract with the U.S. Department of State. The result of the group''s effort is a book-length manuscript entitled "Nuclear Nonproliferation snd the International Management of Spent Reactor Fuel," which was submitted as a report to the Department of State and is to be published commercially.

PART I: General Framework

Chapter 1 - Legal, Institutional and Political Aspects of Managing Spent Fuel Internationally

David Deese and Frederick WilliamsPART II: Regional Considerations and Possibilities
Chapter 2 - Eastern Europe

Melvyn NathansonChapter 3 - Indian Ocean Basin

Onkar MarwahChapter 4 - Latin America

Victoria Johnson and Carlos AstizChapter 5 - Asia and the Middle East

Richard BroinowskiChapter 6 - Western Europe

Robert Gallucci PART III: Feasibility of Managing Spent Fuel Internationally

Chapter 7 - Technical Considerations
Marvin Miller

Chapter 8 - Economic Analysis

Boyce Greer and Mark DalzellChapter 9 - Incentives and Disincentives

Daniel Poneman PA RT IV: The Broader Political Context

Chapter 10 - Public Response to Nuclear Energy

Dorothy ZinbergChapter 11 - The Impact of North-South Politics

Tariq Osman Hyder The Regional Security Working Group, chaired by Michael Nacht, focused on the relationship between American interests and security problems in different regions of the world. Papers were presented on Latin America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, the Horn of Africa, the Eastern Mediterrenean, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia; an additional paper was prepared on the concept of a regional balance of power. Two of the papers were subsequently revised to be included in a volume on European security to be published by the Center in 1979.

The Strategic Arms Control Working Group met regularly to discuss and offer constructive criticism of papers prepared by the members on issues in strategic arms control. The primary focus was on issues and problems likely to arise at a time beyond the signing of a SALT II agreement. Albert Carnesale served as chairman. other regular participants and the topics of their presentations were as follows: Paul Doty and Robert Metzger: "Gray Area Systems"; Stephen Flanagan: "SALT and the Congress"; Randall Forsberg: "Alternative Defense Budgets"; Steven Miller and Paul Walker: "Soviet Perceptions of SALT"; Melvyn Nathanson: "Emerging Technologies and Qualitative Constraints"; and David Tarr: "Alternatives to Deterrence." Each paper is to serve as the basis for a published article, as a chapter of the author''s doctoral thesis, or both.

The Theater Nuclear Weapons Working Group, led by Jane Sharp, met on average twice a month to discuss the military and political aspects of theater nuclear forces in Europe. Papers were presented and critiqued by the group with the intention of publishing a book-length study during 1978-79. Topics discussed included The Determinants of Theater Nuclear Forces; Arms Control Implications of Theater Nuclear Force Planning; Political and Military Aspects of Enhanced Radiation Warheads, with particular attention to the 1977 debates in West Germany; Alternative TNW Postures; The Impact of SALT and MBFR on Theater Nuclear Forces; Gray-area Systems, and Nuclear Planning and Consultation in NATO.

In addition to PSIA members the group included two army officers who had served in West Germany, a Congressional Aide, and visiting scholars from MIT and the ''University of Heidelberg, as well as visiting speakers from Los Alamos and the Defense Department.

Table of Contents:

OverviewOrganization and Personnel

Research and PublicationsSeminars Other Program Activities Related Professional Activities Former Members of the Research Staff

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