Potential Application of Commercial Observation Satellite Imagery for the Verification of Declared and Undeclared Nuclear Production Facilities

Negotiations on a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) will soon be underway at the Committee on Disarmament in Geneva, and will include detailed attention to how such a treaty could be verified. This paper explains how commercial observation satellites can be effective in verifying that reactors used to produce weapons plutonium in the past are kept in a shutdown status under a cutoff treaty or moratorium. The satellites considered are the new-generation satellites with fine spatial resolution images in the visible and near infrared band complemented by thermal infrared images with lower-spatial resolution but good temperature resolution. These satellites can also contribute to the detection of undeclared nuclear-reactor sites and suspicious construction activities.