Routes to Decarbonization in the U.S. and China

Featured in the Spring 2022 Newsletter »

The world will not meet the carbon emission reduction goals of the Paris Agreement without a transformation of our global energy systems. In order for the United States and China, the world’s two largest emitters, to reach carbon neutrality by mid-century, both countries will have to rapidly expand and deploy a variety of energy technologies, both currently available and yet-to-be demonstrated or developed.

No single supply or end-use technology will be responsible for a successful energy transition. Success will require many technologies in varying combinations in different countries and regions. Researchers at the Environment and Natural Resources Program (ENRP) and the Science, Technology, and Public Policy (STPP) Program are identifying the technologies most likely to make a major contribution to meeting the mid-century decarbonization goals in the United States, as well as the barriers to reaching their full emission-reduction potential, and the policies and regulations that could be implemented in the next decade (by 2030) to maintain a pathway to net-zero by 2050. Research collaborators at the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Development at Tsinghua University are undertaking a parallel study for China, with national goals of peaking CO₂ emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060.

What are the promising energy technologies that will put the United States on a path to meeting the Biden Administration’s goals of carbon-free electricity generation by 2035 and net-zero by 2050? Under our Global Energy Technology Innovation initiative, ENRP and STPP published three policy briefs outlining the potential, the barriers and challenges, and the policy and regulatory options of three energy technologies: offshore wind for electricity generation; carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) for fossil-fueled power plants and certain industrial facilities; and a modernized electricity grid with additional transmission.

Offshore Wind in the Eastern United States
As states along the Atlantic coast set ambitious goals to decarbonize their energy portfolios, they are setting their sights on offshore wind. The environment and economic benefits could be substantial, particularly in the densely populated Northeast, where land and onshore wind speeds are limited. Katie Segal and Henry Lee's analysis finds that offshore wind on the Eastern Seaboard is likely to become cost-competitive within the decade, but identifies intermittency and transmission infrastructure as key challenges for energy planners.

Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: Technologies and Costs in the U.S. Context
CCUS technologies could be used to decarbonize hard-to-electrify industrial processes, but high costs, insufficient incentives, and the lack of transportation infrastructure for utilization and sequestration are preventing them from living up to their full potential. Jonathan Moch, William Xue, and John Holdren identify key opportunities for CCUS cost reductions that will be necessary to achieve widespread CCUS deployment in the United States.

The Challenges of Decarbonizing the U.S. Electric Grid by 2035
Getting to carbon-free electricity by 2035 will require a massive expansion of the U.S. electric grid, but construction of new transmission continues to be hampered by poor coordination between regional and national planning entities and lengthy siting and permitting processes. If left unsolved, argue Jonathan Moch and Henry Lee, these obstacles could significantly raise the costs of utility scale renewable power.

The briefs have been shared with relevant policymakers and U.S. Congressional committees and researchers are preparing additional briefs on heating and cooling in buildings and deployment of renewables. We continue to collaborate with our colleagues at Tsinghua via regular workshops to compare findings and discuss common challenges to rapid deployment of low-carbon energy technologies in both countries. In March 2022, Henry Lee testified before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission during a hearing on “China's Energy Plans and Practices” on the topic of policymaking and energy supply and demand in China’s domestic economy. Daniel Schrag and Lee published an article in China Dialogue on the institutional reforms that China would need to make to allow faster deployment of clean energy technologies – putting the country on track to reach its 2060 carbon neutrality target.