What Will 2050 Look Like?

From China's population to NATO's irrelevance, we actually know more about the future of the world's power dynamics than we might think.

Former baseball player (and eminent public intellectual) Yogi Berra famously warned, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yet trying to anticipate the future is a big part of foreign policymaking: leaders (and pundits) must try to interpret trends and anticipate events, so that they can devise policies that will avert disaster and maybe even make things better.

But Berra is still right: predicting the future ain't easy. In a recent class at the Kennedy School, I reminded my first year students about some key features of the world of 1978, which was my first year in grad school. In 1978, the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact were still intact and formidable. The white apartheid government ruled South Africa....

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