ABSTRACT
Purpose
Our article examines the growing role of commercial actors as both participants in and targets of military operations to explore whether and how increased commercial presence affects crisis and escalation dynamics. The article also assesses how to design a geopolitical crisis game that effectively integrates commercial actors.
Method
We conducted a crisis simulation featuring 29 expert players grappling with a renewed confrontation over Ukraine. Our players included senior business executives, retired three and four-star generals and admirals, former foreign service officers, former senior U.S. and European defense and intelligence community officials, and leading scholars. The crisis was set in 2030 and featured four teams: a commercial team and three government teams representing Russia, Europe, and the United States.
Findings
We reach three substantive findings. First, the game demonstrated that cyber and kinetic attacks on commercial assets can trigger escalation—challenging arguments that attacks on commercial targets are less provocative than attacks on military and government targets. Second, the growing role of commercial firms in the international security arena makes communication channels for information sharing and coordination between the government and these firms critical for crisis management. Third, the wargame highlighted how relying on influential private sector leaders involves tradeoffs. These individuals can provide critical information to governments, leverage their companies to support government efforts, and help coordinate broader private sector engagement. However, they may also prioritize their own commercial interests over national ones. Additionally, our simulation revealed lessons that may assist designers of future simulations involving commercial actors.
