The overarching question imparting urgency to this exploration is: Can U.S.-Russian contention in cyberspace cause the two nuclear superpowers to stumble into war? In considering this question we were constantly reminded of recent comments by a prominent U.S. arms control expert: At least as dangerous as the risk of an actual cyberattack, he observed, is cyber operations’ “blurring of the line between peace and war.” Or, as Nye wrote, “in the cyber realm, the difference between a weapon and a non-weapon may come down to a single line of code, or simply the intent of a computer program’s user.”
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The Project on Managing the Atom, the Applied History Project, and the Intelligence Project-alongside the entire Belfer Center community-invite everyone to attend a full-day conference (either in-person or virtually via Zoom Webinar for anyone interested) discussing the implications of the 60th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis.
The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 continues to stand as the single most dangerous event of the nuclear age, when the world came closer than ever before or since to the prospect of nuclear annihilation. Scholars and analysts continue to revisit the CMC to learn its lessons in order to avoid nuclear dangers in the future. A number of recent accounts have shed new light on the various aspects of and incidents within the CMC, providing us with a better understanding of the dynamics of the crisis. As the world marks 60 years since those fateful events, the risk of nuclear conflagration is once again on the rise. Russia, a major nuclear power, is waging a war against Ukraine, a state supported by the United States and NATO, a nuclear-armed alliance. What were the most dangerous moments of the CMC? What contributed to and what ameliorated the risks of a nuclear conflagration? What can we learn from the CMC that is pertinent for preventing a conventional war in Ukraine from crossing the nuclear threshold? MTA brings together historians and political scientists to discuss the state of the art of history and politics of the Cuban Missile Crisis and gauge its relevance for the war in Ukraine and for future crises and conflicts.
This is a hybrid event. Members of the Harvard community and the public are welcome to register for in-person attendance at the Thompson Room in the Barker Center; coffee and lunch will be provided. Everyone is also invited to attend virtually via Zoom webinar. Registration for both is below. See the "Speakers" tab for more information about the participants, and a detailed agenda is forthcoming.
While this virtual event is on the record, the event organizers prohibit any attendees, including journalists, from audio/visual recording or distributing parts or all of the event program without prior written authorization.
In-person Registration (Click Here) Zoom Registration (Click Here)
To reflect on the Cuban Missile Crisis, its consequences, and its relevance for the current historical moment, we will be joined by:
Graham Allison, Harvard Kennedy School
Christopher Andrew, University of Cambridge
Sarah Bidgood, CNS Monterey
Tom Blanton, National Security Archive
Mariana Budjeryn, Harvard Kennedy School
Matt Bunn, Harvard Kennedy School
Rose McDermott, Brown University
Timothy Naftali, New York University
Benoît Pelopidas, Sciences Po.
Sergey Radchenko, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Scott Sagan, Stanford University
Svetlana Savranskaya, National Security Archive
Calder Walton, Harvard Kennedy School
Philip Zelikow, University of Virginia
With a special address by Ash Carter, General Viktor Esin, and Ambassador Linton Brooks
8:30a – 8:45a Arrival and registration
8:45a – 9:00a Welcome by Ash Carter (recording)
9:00a – 10:30a Panel 1. Rethinking Lessons from the CMC
Moderator/discussant: Tom Blanton, National Security Archive
Speakers:
Graham Allison, Applied History Project, Harvard Kennedy School
Svetlana Savranskaya, National Security Archive
Scott Sagan, Stanford University
10:30a-10:45a Coffee break
10:45a-12:15p Panel 2. (Mis)Perceptions, Intelligence, and Technology in the CMC
Moderator: Maria Robson-Morrow, Intelligence Project, Harvard Kennedy School
Speakers:
Calder Walton, Applied History Project, Harvard Kennedy School
Philip Zelikow, University of Virginia (via zoom)
Timothy Naftali, New York University
Christopher Andrew, University of Cambridge (via zoom)
12:15p – 1:30p Lunch
Starting 12:40: Address by General Viktor Esin (recording) and Amb. Linton Brooks (via zoom)
1:30p – 2:30p Panel 3. Most Dangerous Moments of CMC
Moderator: Francesca Giovannini, MTA, Harvard Kennedy School
Speakers:
Matthew Bunn, MTA, Harvard Kennedy School
Mariana Budjeryn, MTA, Harvard Kennedy School
2:30p - 2:45p Coffee break
2:45p – 4:15p Panel 4.CMC’s Long Shadow: Consequences for Today
Moderator: Mariana Budjeryn, MTA, Harvard Kennedy School
Rose McDermott, Brown University (via zoom)
Sarah Bidgood, CNS Monterey
Benoît Pelopidas, Sciences Po. (via zoom)
Sergey Radchenko, Johns Hopkins SAIS
4:15p – 4:30p Concluding remarks. (Bill Perry, Stanford, TBD)