Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Says More…

Project Syndicate: Donald “Trump’s electoral appeal may turn on domestic politics,” you wrote in September, “but his effect on world politics could be transformational, particularly if he gains a second term.” Well, he hasn’t gotten his second term. Is this enough to ensure that we really are at “the end of an historical accident”? What changes cannot be undone, at least not easily?

Joseph Nye: Had Trump been re-elected, the damage to the international system of multilateral institutions and alliances would have been very difficult to repair. As one European friend told me, “it is hard to hold one’s breath for four years; eight years is impossible.”

But Joe Biden has promised to rejoin the Paris climate agreement and the World Health Organization, and to strengthen America's strained alliances. This bodes well. Nonetheless, it will take time to restore trust, not least because more than 70,000,000 Americans cast their votes for Trump. This suggests that Trumpism will live on, even without Trump.

PS: In your book Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump, you rated the 14 presidents since 1945 and gave Trump a formal grade of "incomplete." What score would you give him now? What initial policies would put Biden on the path toward becoming a "top-quartile president"?

JN: The Washington Post's fact-checkers claim that Trump has told over 20,000 lies in his single-term presidency. All politicians occasionally lie, but the frequency and magnitude of Trump's lies — which include ongoing attempts to delegitimize the results of the 2020 election — debase the currency of trust that is essential in a democracy. In fact, among the 14 presidents I rated, Trump is the most amoral. So, with his presidency all but over, I will now change my grade of "incomplete" to "fail." For Biden, charting a path to the top should begin with an emphasis on honesty and trust at home and abroad.

PS: "Obviously, great power competition remains a crucial aspect of foreign policy," you noted recently, "but we must not let it obscure the growing transnational security threats that technology is putting on the agenda." What are the pillars of an effective US cybersecurity agenda? Does the growing political and regulatory scrutiny of tech companies like Facebook, Google, and Twitter — which, you pointed out, are not "instruments of American power" — portend progress on this front, or are policymakers focusing on the wrong issues?

JN: Earlier this year, the bipartisan Cyberspace Solarium Commission laid out a thoughtful agenda that included improved defense and deterrence at home, as well as an effort to negotiate international norms. Domestically, improved regulation, like that we are beginning to see in some areas, will be essential.

At the international level, the Global Commission on Stability in Cyberspace (of which I was a member) concluded in its report last year that a binding legal treaty would be premature. But we can establish norms of expected behavior — a flexible middle ground between rigid treaties and inaction. The commission's report proposed a set of eight norms, which address gaps in previously declared principles and focus on technical issues that are fundamental to cyber stability. Such norms can be seen as common points of reference in evolving international discussions. But, even if they are broadly accepted, we will still have a long way to go....