Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility

The intersection of AI and other emerging and disruptive technologies may help latent proliferators accelerate covert nuclear breakout attempts. Across six simulations, substantial front-loaded investments in future monitoring and verification capabilities are essential to detecting prospective AI-enabled drives for the bomb.

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Open Access

Published: 2025

Author
David Minchin Allison

Author
Stephen Herzog

AI capabilities are evolving rapidly. Is it possible that they could one day make it easier for states to hide covert nuclear proliferation attempts?

Key Takeaways

States will need a lot more than a ChatGPT subscription to develop a nuclear weapon, but the intersection of future AI models and other emerging technologies may compress latent proliferators’ calculus about breakout time to the bomb.

Breakout is a race: Monitoring and verification capabilities remain ahead of proliferation-enabling technologies, but commercial developments might eventually change this balance.

Six simulated scenarios––from AI with limited proliferation relevance to AI taking on the capacity of full nuclear weapon design teams––highlight that early investment in advanced detection methods is essential.

ABSTRACT

A robust nonproliferation regime has contained the spread of nuclear weapons to just nine states. Yet, emerging and disruptive technologies are reshaping the landscape of nuclear risks, presenting a critical juncture for decision makers. This article lays out the contours of an overlooked but intensifying technological arms race for nuclear (in)visibility, driven by the interplay between proliferation-enabling technologies (PETs) and detection-enhancing technologies (DETs). We argue that the strategic pattern of proliferation will be increasingly shaped by the innovation pace in these domains. Artificial intelligence (AI) introduces unprecedented complexity to this equation, as its rapid scaling and knowledge substitution capabilities accelerate PET development and challenge traditional monitoring and verification methods. To analyze this dynamic, we develop a formal model centered on a Relative Advantage Index (RAI), quantifying the shifting balance between PETs and DETs. Our model explores how asymmetric technological advancement, particularly logistic AI-driven PET growth versus stepwise DET improvements, expands the band of uncertainty surrounding proliferation detectability. Through replicable scenario-based simulations, we evaluate the impact of varying PET growth rates and DET investment strategies on cumulative nuclear breakout risk. We identify a strategic fork ahead, where detection may no longer suffice without broader PET governance. Governments and international organizations should accordingly invest in policies and tools agile enough to keep pace with tomorrow's technology.

Recommended citation

Allison, David M., and Stephen Herzog. "Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility." Risk Analysis. 2025.