Winning Hearts and Minds? How the United States Reassured During the Russo-Ukrainian War

Scholars have long argued that great powers build global confidence in crises through displays of resolve, though a smaller body of work contends that restraint can be equally or more reassuring. This study asks when and for whom restraint or resolve fosters reassurance. Drawing on public opinion surveys in 24 countries across six continents, we assess U.S. efforts to reassure allies and partners after Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Our data—capturing views from rarely surveyed populations—highlight conditions under which restraint or resolve prove effective. We propose theoretical mechanisms linking reassurance to prior beliefs about force and to states’ geopolitical positioning. The findings challenge conventional wisdom: respondents worldwide were reassured by U.S. restraint. By avoiding direct intervention in the Russo-Ukrainian War, Washington reinforced the U.S.-led order, aligning NATO members’ interests with those of partners in the Indo-Pacific and Global South.