Analysis & Opinions - The National Interest

Predicting Donald Trump’s Strategy Towards North Korea in a Second Term

| Sep. 26, 2020

Editor's Note: The following is part of a new symposium here in Korea Watch that will analyze potential U.S. policy options towards North Korea should Donald Trump win reelection. Check back soon for more contributions in the coming days. 

While the pundits are as confident today of a Biden victory as they were that Hillary would win in 2016, I have found Ladbrokes to be better than pollsters and pundits at assessing the odds. Today Ladbrokes gives Trump a 50 percent chance of winning. It could happen.

If so, my best bet is that policy towards North Korea will be a continuation of the policy we saw emerge in Trump’s first term.

From my cloudy crystal ball, five points.

1. Expect more continuity than change. While North Korea remains extremely dangerous, U.S., South Korean, and even North Korean policy will essentially be more similar to what we’ve seen in the past several years than different.

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For more information on this publication: Belfer Communications Office
For Academic Citation: Allison, Graham.“Predicting Donald Trump’s Strategy Towards North Korea in a Second Term.” The National Interest, September 26, 2020.

The Author

Graham Allison headshot

Graham Allison

  • Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School
  • Member of the Board, Belfer Center
  • Former Director, Belfer Center
  • Faculty Affiliate, Future of Diplomacy Project
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