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Heather Williams, a nuclear expert at King’s College London and visiting fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School, said it was “totally ambiguous” but in keeping with a leader who has a history of being a “nuclear bully”. “It is classic Putin, creating ambiguity and uncertainty,” Williams said. “Putin is so good at that because he knows that it keeps people on edge.”

Noi che siamo spettatori dell’abisso, come dice Ian McEwan, a cosa dobbiamo ancora assistere? Alla conquista da parte di Vladimir Putin, per via della sua enorme supremazia, di tutte le centrali nucleari. Riuscirà anche a disarticolare i presidi logistici della difesa di Kiev.

Francesca Giovannini, the executive director of the Project on Managing the Atom at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science, believes that the nuclear option, while improbable, should not be completely ruled out. “The circumstances are very complex,” she argues. “And he [Putin] is under a huge amount of pressure.”

And then there are the extreme circumstances of the moment. “I think that he is under huge internal pressure,” says Giovannini. “He’s not crazy. I don’t think that he would launch a strategic bomb. But it worries me that he could consider the option of a tactical one. To send a message that he is prepared to do anything to defend Russian interests. Thinking that perhaps an attack with a tactical warhead in Ukraine would not trigger a military reaction from NATO against Russia.”

The initial stage of the war in Ukraine has confounded expectations. Russia’s military invasion failed in key objectives, upending predictions of a rout of Ukraine. Then, after years of avoiding direct confrontations with Moscow, Western nations are now directly punishing Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies with truly devastating economic sanctions while openly supplying arms to Ukraine.

Though there were peace talks for the first time on Monday, there are no signs that the cycle of escalation will go down. Amid unprecedented global pressure, Putin is doubling down on a defensive posture that pits Russia against almost everyone else in the world. He has ratcheted up the levels of violence in eastern Ukraine, bombarding the city of Kharkiv with suspected cluster munitions, while putting the country’s nuclear arsenal on alert.

Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs today announced the appointment of Lori Garver and Beth Sanner as non-resident Senior Fellows. Garver is a former Deputy Administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) and current CEO of Earthrise Alliance. Sanner was Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Mission Integration and is now Professor of Practice at the University of Maryland's Applied Research Lab for Intelligence Security. They will both share their experience and expertise with students and faculty of Harvard Kennedy School and the greater Harvard community.      

The Belfer Center's Intelligence Project and Cyber Project to host conference exploring the state of diversity in the intelligence and national security communities on September 24th and September 25th, 2020. 

The Intelligence Study Group is designed for students considering careers in government or private sector intelligence, as well as for those interested in a broad introduction to intelligence as applied in business and government decision-making. Over the course of 10 sessions, participants will become familiar with intelligence history, methodology, organizations and practice. The Study Group will use historical examples (‘Applied History’), current readings, and discussion to examine how intelligence enhances policy decision-making, where it fails, and the differences between intelligence in liberal democracies and one-party states.

The sessions will be led by former senior CIA officer Paul Kolbe, Director of the Belfer Center Intelligence Project, and Intelligence Historian, Calder Walton, Belfer Intelligence Project Director of Research.

Participation is limited to 20 students determined by application. Please see below for how to apply!

The Intelligence Study Group is designed for students considering careers in government or private sector intelligence, as well as for those interested in a broad introduction to intelligence as applied in business and government decision-making. Over the course of 10 sessions, participants will become familiar with intelligence history, methodology, organizations and practice. The Study Group will use historical examples (‘Applied History’), current readings, and discussion to examine how intelligence enhances policy decision-making, where it fails, and the differences between intelligence in liberal democracies and one-party states.

The sessions will be led by former senior CIA officer Paul Kolbe, Director of the Belfer Center Intelligence Project, and Intelligence Historian, Calder Walton, Belfer Intelligence Project Director of Research.

Participation is limited to 20 students determined by application. Please see below for how to apply!