Reports & Papers

1961 Items

An assault unit commander from the 3rd Assault Brigade who goes by the call sign 'Fedia' raises the Ukrainian flag as a symbol of liberation of the frontline village of Andriivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Saturday, Sept. 16, 2023. (AP Photo/Alex Babenko)

AP Photo/Alex Babenko

Paper - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

From Stalemate to Settlement

This white paper attempts to apply history to illuminate possible paths forward but is neither a detailed blueprint for peace nor an intricate playbook for how negotiations should proceed. With any negotiated settlement, the devil is in the details, and questions such as the prosecution of war crimes, repatriation of prisoners of war (POWs), reparations, and specific territorial lines will undoubtedly be debated fiercely by Moscow and Kyiv. The specific contours of any deal will be ironed out at the negotiating table. Additionally, significant negotiations are unlikely to take place in the lame-duck period prior to the US presidential election. Our recommendations are therefore not an immediate  call for action but guidelines for policymakers if and when Ukraine decides to negotiate. 

Paper

Shaping Transatlantic Security: The EU’s Drive for a Stronger Defense Industry

| Apr. 22, 2024

On March 05, 2024, the European Commission unveiled its first-ever European Defense Industry Strategy (EDIS). This announcement comes at an unprecedented moment in history.  In Ukraine, the situation remains a dire tactical stalemate, while belligerent Russia seems more threatening than ever to the European bloc. In the US, despite the efforts of the Biden administration, aid to Ukraine stalled for months and remains a contentious issue in Congress. Across Europe, EU Member States are trying to fill the gap in aid, but are struggling to supply Ukraine with the defense systems it urgently needs. On February 10, at a rally in South Carolina, former President and presidential candidate Donald Trump cast doubt on whether he would defend or surrender to Russia any European country that would fail to achieve NATO’s 2%-of-GDP target for defense spending.

A battle-scarred home draped with an Israeli flag in Kibbutz Be'eri, an Israeli communal farm on the Gaza border. AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov

AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov

Report - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Challenging Biases and Assumptions in Analysis: Could Israel Have Averted Intelligence Failure?

| April 2024

The human tragedy continuing to unfold in Gaza and Israel reminds us how important it is to get strategic forecasting right. While in no way excusing Hamas’ culpability for 7 October, we also cannot dismiss the fact that the failure to anticipate and prepare for such an attack has had grave consequences for communities on both sides of this conflict, undermined efforts to bring peace and prosperity to the region, and affected global interests through the expansion of the conflict to the Red Sea and potentially beyond. 

GPS III Satellite

GPS.gov

Paper

The 50th Anniversary of GPS: New Avenues for Cooperating with Europe's Galileo

| Apr. 09, 2024

This paper delves into the evolution and future prospects of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), with a particular focus on the United States' Global Positioning System (GPS) and Europe's Galileo. As GPS celebrates its 50th anniversary, it is a timely moment to assess its historical trajectory, current status, and future directions, especially considering the emergence of new competitors like China's BeiDou. Based on interviews with two GNSS experts from the European Commission, this study aims to analyze the potential for cooperation between GPS and Galileo, exploring avenues for collaboration and mutual learning.

Adobe Stock Photo of the Middle East

Adobe Stock Photo

Paper - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

The Gulf Moment and the Making of the Khaleeji State

| Apr. 05, 2024

The paper argues for putting aside the old rentier state paradigm that has long dominated Gulf literature, considering the emergence of both the Gulf Moment and the United Arab Emirates Momentum (henceforth UAE Momentum). Instead, it offers a novel analytical concept of the Khaleeji state, incorporating both the exceptionalist and normalist approaches to Gulf studies. The Khaleeji state is also a way to comprehend the unfolding of the Gulf Moment. The term Gulf Moment indicates the profound influence that the Arab Gulf States (AGS) maintain over the rest of the Arab world at the turn of the twenty-first century. The UAE momentum is currently the main engine of the Gulf Moment.

two hands reaching to shake in front of U.S. and North Korean flags.

AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Report

Negotiating with North Korea: Key Lessons Learned from Negotiators' Genesis Period

| March 2024

Only a small handful of people in the world have sat at the negotiating table with the North Koreans and extensively interacted with them. Yet, this knowledge is fragmented and has not been collected or analyzed in a systematic manner. This report captures the findings from in-depth, one-on-one interviews with former senior negotiators from the United States and South Korea, who gained unique knowledge about North Korean negotiating behavior by dealing directly with their high-level North Korean counterparts. 

These negotiators collectively represent a body of negotiation experience and expertise starting from the early 1990s to late 2019, when North Korea ceased all negotiations with the United States. During that time, the conditions for productive negotiation changed dramatically – indeed, the conditions for the 1994 U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework negotiations were much more favorable than during the Six-Party Talks of the mid-2000s or the Season of Summits during 2018-2019. For the “Negotiating with North Korea: Key Lessons Learned from Negotiators’ Genesis Period” project, a spotlight was placed on former senior negotiators’ early-stage experience preparing for and engaging in negotiations with the North Koreans. In doing so, tacit knowledge was captured to serve as a resource for future negotiators to inform and accelerate their own genesis period.

bus that runs on green hydrogen, framed by leaves

AP Photo/Anupam Nath

Report - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

India - The New Global Green Hydrogen Powerhouse?

| Mar. 26, 2024

India aims to become a leading producer of green hydrogen by the next decade as part of its broader industrial and decarbonization strategies. This brief provides an overview of India's current hydrogen strategy, as well as the challenges - land and water scarcity, infrastructure gaps, and financing gaps - that must be addressed in order for India to achieve its ambitious goals.

Report - CNA's Center for Naval Analyses

Russia and the Global Nuclear Order

| March 2024

Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine illuminated the long profound shadow of nuclear weapons over international security. Russia's nuclear threats have rightfully garnered significant attention because of the unfathomable lethality of nuclear weapons. However, the use of such weapons in Ukraine is only one way—albeit the gravest— that Russia could challenge the global nuclear order. Russia's influence extends deep into the very fabric of this order—a system to which it is inextricably bound by Moscow's position in cornerstone institutions such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). From withdrawing from key treaties to stymieing resolutions critical of misconduct, Moscow has demonstrated its ability to challenge the legitimacy, relevance, and interpretations of numerous standards and principles espoused by the West.

footprints in the snow

Adobe Stock/snatalia

Report - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

The Future of Arctic Council Innovation: Charting a Course for Working-Level Cooperation

| Feb. 20, 2024

This report is based on insights from a two-day workshop hosted by the Belfer Center’s Arctic Initiative in collaboration with the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, the Center for Ocean Governance at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, and the Wilson Center's Polar Institute. Participants developed practical recommendations for facilitating working-level cooperation through the Arctic Council and other institutions.